2008年6月2日星期一
Tandi the property market turnover, prices will drop
From the end of 07 central bank introduced the policy of the second mortgage, the real estate industry on the air for Chou Yun, 07 in the fourth quarter of the time, developers are basically the same caliber that were originally downturn is the end of the traditional off-season sales, but also summed up the problem To the end of the cyclical bank credit crunch. As early as the autumn Fangzhan 07, when I put on a distinct, national inevitable turning point in the Lou, 08 days will be very easy industry. November, the author of the U.S. real estate with Chen Yun-feng, Centaline Property Li Wenjie, director of the Institute of Beijing University real estate Chan Kwok-keung, Jiang Wei offshore real estate industry, such as several counterparts were guests of a portal on the property market trend, the author's turning point On have been unanimous in opposing, but by the author of "within three months of the Lou city will now turning point", "08 Beijing property market turnover decreased by at least 30% of" point of view, the industry also caused a great uproar. The property market the traditional peak season in May is over, this is great hope that the developers of the month, is to return real estate funds golden era. At the end of this volume presents the actual bowl of cold water poured them - the original developers expect the "Red May" Not only no, housing turnover is still unable to stop the pace of decline. According to the Beijing real estate transaction data network, Beijing, signing a total of 6,698 residential units, 216 units a day, compared with 07 contract for the same period in 9581 residential units, 309 sets of the daily average turnover, turnover fell by 30 percent year-on-year . May this year, the turnover of only 300 sets of breakthroughs in four days, May 07, the Beijing property market turnover was 20 days in more than 300 sets, and most are more than 400 sets. The property market turnover of decline has been an exhaustive list. As of May 31, 08 Beijing property market total turnover, according to the Beijing real estate transactions published data network, 08 Beijing the first five months of Qifang total turnover of 25,361 residential units, the daily average of 168 sets of contract, compared to 42,862 units a year ago The turnover volume of 17,501 sets of small, year-on-year decline in more than 41%! It should be noted that, if the first few months of the property market downturn, the industry can find a reason for that is leading to fewer projects were closed down, Beijing has ushered放量peak of the property market, Beijing in May about 40 projects Open, Qifang supply of residential sales from April of about 80,000 sets of up to 85,600 sets. Faced with the gloomy property market status quo, the major projects is not to take measures, discount, prices, promotions and other means of endless, but experienced a 07 crazy, many consumers are rational. Developers need to come up with true sincerity to move consumers, and not simply Zuoxiu - a consumer may be a fool, but if the whole market when the fool, that will eventually be found that the most stupid of their own or in fact. The rapid changes in the market, as corporate decision-makers is the need to have courage, any industry price war, the initiative never in the hands of the sponsors, who will follow very passive. While the current property market slump, but the real potential for consumption or some, the key is the huge Xugao prices to the real needs of the door. Beijing market to warmer, the premise must be rational prices return. 08 the first season is over, the next Olympic Games Beijing property market can only see the beginning of 8, 9 and 10 after three months, three months if it also can not win a better sales performance, the Beijing property market will completely into the freezing point. Last year, and the Wu-Xishou contrast, in order to facilitate transactions, in May, including Zhi-Qiang Ren and Pan Shiyi, the developers have admitted that most of the fact that housing prices down. Against this background, most developers have adopted discount strategy. "May 1", on the North East Asia Center, Vanke holiday in the scenic grain Ziyuan, the upper Vanke City in Beijing opened seven new projects have different rates of discount. Among them, many projects below the 10% discount, but also including Fangzhuang on the 6th event of such a developer to be rough from hard to achieve disguised price cuts. Even in this premise, "Red May" still failed to appear. - May failed to come and give developers a heavy blow, CPI still rising, not loose monetary tightening policy, foreign investment banks have also started to see Air China property market, Goldman Sachs published report that housing prices in China within a year will be down 15% , The real estate industry situation is very grim. May has passed, 6,7,8 sales of the three traditional off-season has arrived and failed to seize an opportunity before the developers can only suffer Chengzhe wait until next season to arrive. Can not hold the developers, will be forced to choose price cuts, prices will continue to drop. And the end, will usher in the low prices (the author of the text will be made up). I warned the industry this year, the frontline town house prices Pudie, the polarization of second-tier cities in the property market has become a foregone conclusion, even the arrival of the 9-10, the trend of the year there is no help. Although the three-city or house prices still higher, but because in the real estate industry is too small in proportion to the overall development of the industry will not achieve a key role. Instead expect the government to save the market, as self-help. The problem is not the property market at present there is no demand, but the real demand was rejected. Virtual house prices rose for the fall some, it is a good thing for consumers, the real estate industry is a good thing. Faced with consumers, mature enterprises must understand that the survival of important than the face, occasionally, to our low-head God, in fact, has nothing to do face problems.
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