Seismic prices »

A few days ago, a well-known financial commentator on 512 earthquake and the relationship between China's housing prices made a "No" or "weak correlation" theory, which refers to this is not due to the earthquake took place in the country's economic core area, Therefore the domestic capital markets, the impact is limited, coupled with the disaster-stricken areas of commercial housing market on domestic prices of major regions of weak guidance, is not a monolithic appears to shake the current real estate market prices. From a purely economic influence in perspective, I admit that this major earthquake-affected areas are Cangqiang-mixed areas, the level of economic development is limited, in addition to individual listed companies, the country's total economic output not affected. But whether the earthquake will be a profound impact on the market price of commercial housing to the movement of individuals think more deeply from the local perspective - that is, from China's real estate price formation mechanism to look at. China's real estate prices is what » In stimulating investment-led China's capital market, housing prices is actually a Dinghaishenzhen! Since China's reform and opening up the future path of economic development is actually taking a monopoly capital, focus on investment-led development of export industries, relying on the surplus realized capital accumulation promote the upgrading of asset prices closed circle. Trade monopoly - on capital - investment - low-cost labor - more efficient - trade monopoly, focus on deepening the capital - the appreciation of assets - re-investment - to improve efficiency, in this closed circle, the fact is the appreciation of assets The entire investment to promote economic development of the final performance. And the revaluation of assets is always accompanied by the development of overall growth, efficiency, low wages and capital focus. As principle of efficiency and low-cost labor factor is the overall economic development cycle and the fundamental driving force behind this development model inevitable result is to reduce the proportion of consumption, the gap between rich and poor is widening, is to raise asset prices…… The development model, there are two indicators of things, one is the stock market, is a price, the stock market can be seen as the capital market trend variables, and housing prices, it is a quantitative, representing the total size of monopoly capital . Therefore, the basis of high housing prices, it can be said is the gap between rich and poor; capital monopoly of labour is cheap, therefore, to solve the whole problem of China's high housing prices, in fact, to solve China's own industrial monopoly, the monopoly of the export investment Markets facing the transition problems. This problem actually can only put the Genbenmaodun in the community to understand. For China's current situation, there is a cartoon image to a good analogy: China, can be compared to a towing 1.3 billion people in the running of the Giants, he was constantly behind in the chase in an attempt to engulf the flood. In the two fragile legs, a written economic development, and a written system, after the flood, clear Piaozhao two Chinese characters - the revolution! Very simple, Chinese society is so constant and a "revolution" a race against the Giants, efficiency and fairness, economic development and reform, which is always Ciqibiluo two legs, which can not be dragged into one. Now it » Economic development of the legs forward to a quick 30, the reform of the legs has been difficult to shake, with the result that the efficiency of the supremacy of the bloody ideological and economic development. Recent public opinion to see it, the discussion of the social system, the monopoly interests of the condemnation, the right balance of public opinion supervision. Chinese people in the past year, to participate in reform, in power supervision of enthusiasm, than in the past more than 29 combined! Corresponding, is central to the recent spate of reform of the distribution system, the livelihood of real estate, ZF sector reform, social security, and other farmers livelihood initiatives. In fact, this series of initiatives is that giving priority to efficiency of the times are gone, simple economic development and social harmony is being replaced and the principle of fairness. In response, accustomed to the power monopoly of the Keynesian who might be sad, GDP supremacy of the times are past, the next few years, China will need to sort out ideas, make choices, from the cultural, political, ideological to a body, Over the past 30 years to pull down the fairness of this leg pulling. To break this capital to suppress elements of the core elements of labor under detention, there are two buses at the end of the prison must be reversed and the stock market is a big bully smaller one is the high prices! Very pleased, shares in principle to return the investment value, 25 times the average dynamic PE is still not the right response elements of value, but the core is increasingly clear - to the capital market is not a monopoly at the local Quanqian, is here to Public investment in operating profit return of a person who places. On the other hand, high housing prices there are the cornerstone of the collapse. Investment in efficiency-oriented principle, the high price of the monopoly of power and capital is concentrated in the core, is the capital element of suppression of labor elements of a big mountain. In this big mountain, the local division of labour between ZF and developers through to the development of the land monopoly and aptitude restrictions, the success of the monopoly of commercial housing prices and housing prices to make up not only a hedge against inflation or a "myth." Through this myth, a house can go to an ordinary family life value of the labor force almost all of the remaining, and the remainder of the value of labor monopoly created by the land bubble, the vast majority have returned to the hands of monopoly ZF! Therefore, if high prices did not collapse, the value of the liberation of labor is impossible, consumer-led economic growth model can not be established, people will always be a cheap labor! But now, everything is facing a historic change in the sub-loan crisis in the United States to preserve and increase the value of the property of Dale Ge greatly reasonable question mark. Even in the most stress the value of the investment principles of the United States, with a rational model of economic growth deduced from the capital market, the same can not avoid the collapse of the cyclical results. U.S. housing prices much lower income than the Chinese, the sale of more than a reasonable rent, housing and the land is privately owned, or they can, why can not we » Second, the land is the bubble burst, many Chinese cities as an example of 1,2, 08 the first quarter of the land transaction price than October 07 before the ring sharp decline in the land market flow standard is too numerous to list. As a national housing price bubble throughout the root causes of land bubble burst will directly break the lowest prices, caused the revaluation of commercial housing price platform. Of course, the current market with a lot of people said that inflation, with PPI said, that steel, cement, aluminum and other building material prices will directly stimulate the housing prices, this is a dog P logic! What is the commercial housing » Assets, is the investment goods, direct impact on the prices of the capital market, investment confidence in the market and inflows of funds. The current state of the market, the outflow of massive social idle funds real estate market and investment market, but the commodities market is extremely expansive. 07 previously caused the whole world, especially the sharp appreciation of the assets of the Third World hot money is currently being rushed to the spot and futures commodities market: rice, wheat and soybean oil to the oil and massive dollar floating capital is the last year in 1998 now become overheated investment Global inflation, which at this time, the world's capital markets and real estate markets are cooling and contraction, China is no exception. Therefore, this put China's real estate market reasons for the cold case, the reason is very simple, because the money gone, but the money they have to patronize commodity trading market! Although ZF are shrinking throughout the land supply to the market to buy renewed wish, but because of the large number of floating capital withdrawal, leading to the real estate investment and consumption cold case, we are now only needs the so-called hard rigid support of the overall situation of the entire real estate . Therefore, as long as the analysis of the first home owners - that is, those who buy consumer goods as the ordinary consumers, we can clearly understand the earthquake, the huge natural disasters to the current market may be what caused the psychological shocks of the… … If the majority of the rigid psychological needs of the consumers of the true thinking is: Although the purchase and sale of rental than in the uneconomical, but also left at least purchase a "shell" This is like the stock market to buy one inside the Ta Kong Garbage stocks, although the performance of return is not satisfactory, but not to withdraw from the market mechanism in the Chinese stock market, this "shell" how many there are still some reorganization of the emancipated "paranoia." Therefore, those who refuse to stay in the stock market, "shell" and stay in the city of devaluation "shell" are actually in the capital, land elements of the monopoly mechanism, the central and local Quanqian the cap. People ever think that real estate is a hedge against inflation than bank savings but also the investment goods, which is ZF monopoly in land and on the basis of the limited supply shortage caused by man-made. 512 earthquakes, it is the role of the destructive power through the bloody, people think that this can best preserve and increase the Kezi, the destruction of the moment, and let people decades formed the investment value system has collapsed. When it was discovered that real estate is a real risk of investment goods, there is great risk of loss, and in such circumstances, its own prices over a reasonable investment value. In the devaluation risk and the risk of loss under the dual pressure, people will be how to respond » Nature is leasing rather than buying! This process will continue until prices reach a reasonable investment in space so far! Therefore, the earthquake actually changed the housing consumer value judgement method and system of valuation, so that customers from more biased towards consumption of ways to look at real estate. In fact, this process is that we advocate the people's livelihood the nature of real estate! Earthquake to promote the rational consumption concept of home ownership and housing production, perhaps in the future will further lead to the current high prices of fundamentally sound mechanism for the formation of a collapse. If the next day, the call eventually led to people's livelihood, "the third time the agrarian revolution" that is, possession of land property rights means a fundamental change, I think this a great change enough to comfort the victims of 70,000 compatriots Zaitianzhiling!