The next five years the housing supply forecast

concerned about the trend of the prices, house prices and a decision is a major factor supply and demand, sub-loans, earthquakes and other external factors could change the market in the near future shape, but decided to medium and long-term trend of the market, must be within the relationship between supply and demand. This round of macro-control of the first half of the (2003-2006) only so ineffective, largely due to some mistakes in policy, which should be to increase the supply, but the tightening of land, while demand has not been suppressed, led the country for several years The overall housing market demand. When the earlier analysis of the next five years the country's domestic demand (the next five years, China's domestic demand is very scary!), The paper then analysis of the supply. The next five years depends mainly on domestic supply to several factors. First, land supply, supply of land directly determine the maximum possible to provide housing; land supply consists of two parts, namely, additional land supply and Panhuo land in stock. Second, the policy factors, mainly affecting the housing supply structure; existing policies including the "70/90", the Housing prices, guaranteed housing, such as the New Deal. Third, market factors, the market boom of high, developers will actively take to and accelerate development and increase effective supply of housing, otherwise the contrary. Additional land supply: about 1.35 billion square meters In recent years, China's land area and the acquisition of relatively developed area (10,000 square meters) From 2002-2006, the purchase of the land area of situation, with an average annual purchase of land in the area of about 360 million square meters, and the area around the 200 million square meters. Since 2004 the country has increased efforts to control the supply of land, 2005 and the acquisition of land for two consecutive years of decline there. But the market continued to heat up the situation, the development of the land area is a fast rising trend. From the perspective of supply and demand, 2005, domestic sales of more than three consecutive years of completion. This shows that with the continuous improvement of people's living standards, promote the process of urbanization, investment in speculative demand expansion, the current domestic market demand in the state. Solve the problem of high housing prices, an important measure is to increase land supply and provision of effective products. From this perspective, the next five years, China's land supply should be increased, the bottom line is not than the current low level of supply. Residential land proportion of the total land transfer for roughly 70-80 per cent, 75 per cent from the middle of each purchase of the land area of 270 million square meters, the new five-year land area of 13.5 million square meters. Panhuo land in stock: 760 million square meters land stock Stock land, the current land policy is an important aspect to the fight against developers Tuen, intensify the use of idle land Panhuo. Nationwide, residential land in stock and there is no authoritative statistics, by September 2007 to data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources: by the end of 2004, the idle land is 28,105, the area is 107 million mu (about 710 million square meters ). From the annual land area and the acquisition of land development in the area of comparative data (see above), can insight into the situation of China's land in stock. For example, the 2006 purchase of the land area is 368 million square meters, the same year, and the area is 266 million square meters, roughly the difference between the two is the year of plot of land development. This nature, the land 2002-2006 five-year total capacity of 770 million square meters is huge, according to the ratio of 75%, converted to residential land area of 580 million square meters. In strict rectification of the land policy context, it is estimated that 80% of them, that is, 460 million square meters of residential land in the next five years will be formed to develop and market supply. In addition, to consider in 2007 (no data) of land in stock, and in 2002 before the formation of idle land, if these 300 million square meters in the next five years to develop, or a total of 760 million square meters of residential land stock Will form a supply. Housing supply forecast: the next five years can be used for development of residential land area is the newly acquired land area and can be used for the development of the stock of the land area and that 13.5 +7.6 = 2.11 billion square meters. If the average residential floor area ratio by 1.8, then the next five years to the community to provide the residential area of 3.79 billion square meters. Housing supply structure prediction The next five years, "70/90" policy will take full effect of the show, most of the new urban housing supply is below 90 square meters will be mainly small and medium-sized apartment. Not rule out the policies implemented in a number of years, "70/90" policy based on the actual situation of the market adjustment, but in recent years the residential market supply structure will inevitably be a major impact on the policy. In 2008 the Government to vigorously promote affordable housing and low-rent housing mainly of the safeguard measures. The Case of Shanghai, the Shanghai government in 2008 announced during the two sessions started construction within five years 20 million square meters of affordable housing, making policy of residential housing supply the proportion of the total supply reached 20 percent. Housing security is the face of the new market situation, timely adjustment policies, protection of people's livelihood, focusing on advancing the work. Can be predicted in the next few years, the Government will continue to implement the housing security policies, and even the possibility of further strengthening. Because of economy housing construction standards limit of 60 square meters, low-cost Housing construction standards limit in the following 50 square meters, so the next five years, following 60 square meters of housing supply ratio will be gradually expanded and long-term trend of the total domestic supply 15-20 percent ratio. Ministry of Construction urged all localities before the end of June this year introduced "in housing construction plan 2008-2012", the majority of cities "in 2008 housing construction plan" has been introduced, which can be seen throughout the 2008 housing supply structure. From the following urban housing construction planning, housing and protection of the proportion of the total supply of an average of 18 percent. Some cities, housing construction plan in 2008 (10,000 m2%) City New housing The low-cost and affordable housing Protection of the proportion of housing Beijing 2750 350 12.7 Shanghai 2000 400 20 Shenzhen 1216 228.4 18.8 Chongqing 2499 235.9 9.4 Wuhan 1028 316 30.8 Nanjing 1120 271 23.5 Hangzhou 650 200 30 Fuzhou 520 22 4.2 Xi'an 1281 207 17.1 Taking all these factors, 2008-2012, the country is expected to housing supply structure is as follows: high-end housing accounted for about 10 percent, 90 square meters more than ordinary housing accounted for about 20 percent, general merchandise below 90 square meters of housing and housing prices account for 50% , The protection of housing (affordable housing and low-cost room) accounted for 20 percent. 90 square meters of residential following the ratio is about 70 percent