Professor Xu Dianqing questionable and the City (2)

As the saying goes: Muxian not heard. When in the classroom, Professor Xu Dianqing witnessed a real person, with words and photos in the sense of difference is relatively large. From the media and related comments, that its people should be sent Green Zhuang, Yiguanchuchu for the "guidance Jiangshan" shape. While sitting in the classroom of Professor Xu past the ear-year, basically be called plain, like an old Chinese tradition of intellectuals, it is not enough to drink ocean ink, to teach Dr. Yang Yang of the University. According to Professor Xu, the former World Bank and the Asian Development Bank consultant, is often the key domestic economic conference Zuoshang Bin, on the Asian financial crisis had been 220,000 U.S. dollars Zhongjiang and "capital" approach on economic Kyo.

Professor Xu's open class on "macroeconomic and capital operation" launched, many of which macro-economic viewpoints, and methods for me, and so long confined to the specific work of the people, is of great inspiration and guidance. For example, to China, India economic development strategy, Professor Xu that China's strategic priority is the development of the manufacturing sector, following the transfer of industries, in line with the national conditions of employment has increased, while India's strategic priority is the development of high-tech, Europe and the United States and Japan. Tongchangjingji developed countries, like the World Cup group stage with Brazil, Germany with the group, entered the "Group of Death." Sino-Indian strategic choice of two different result: China to become a world factory, the world everywhere "MADE IN CHINA", the world's money flow into China, China has become the engine of the global economy, while India and developed countries compete to become Outsourcing major countries, but rich-poor gap is widening, the general public does not benefit from the number and size of the gap between China's economy is also increasing.

In addition, Professor Xu, "30 years of China's reform and the cost of precipitation to the bank," the conclusion is surprising. And his "" currency war "is the Ministry of Finance Jin Yong's martial arts novel type of" view, I agree. I am disgusted at every turn on the comparison with "conspiracy theory", "trickery" is matter of history. "罗斯切尔德family", said the book of God then, not a God. But I understand that God created human beings spent seven days later, on the back of the rest. In addition, the book also feel a little contempt for the wisdom of our readers. But the letter was also really, no way!

I am not "academic", the limited quality of macroeconomic theory, the macroeconomic research only stay in "Qingtingdianshui" level. After all, but in the real estate Chuangdang lap eight, nine years, has done five or six years of professional real estate market research. As the saying goes: "A Night of the Prophet Plumbing duck", presumably should have a say in the property or the.

Professor Xu's open class, the real estate market also focus on more. Focus on the real estate market logic and the status quo Change Rates start.

Professor Xu is the logic of the market: the purpose of macro-control is to prevent the current crisis…… China is facing two major threats, is a financial crisis, is a social crisis…… prices will plunge triggered banking crisis…… from the perspective of the banks , Housing prices rose but not a direct result of the crisis.

Professor Xu, "will certainly trigger price plummeted banking crisis" on the grounds that: "At present, banks a lot of housing mortgage loans…… personal mortgage loans accounted for all the personal loan amount of 82.5%. Many 20% down payment mortgage loans. If housing prices Once down by 20 percent over, many mortgage loans became non-performing loans.…… State-owned commercial banks hidden inside a huge non-performing loans. If a large number of non-performing loans, is likely to become overwhelmed the camel's last straw. "

Professor Xu, "skyrocketing housing prices are not a direct result of the crisis" on the grounds that: "in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities, residential prices per square meter over 10,000 yuan, the general wage-earners can not afford to buy a house a long time ago. In short supply Excess liquidity and financial circumstances, would be forced to suppress prices have paid Puhuo, just the opposite. Instead of building more so than the number of low-cost, affordable housing and small-family homes, housing security links difficult for the people to lift housing Problem. "

From the above list of Professor Xu's remarks and views, we can see that the logic of its housing market and housing prices Change is the key to study the financial and monetary crisis, the basic view is: because the financial crisis, so prices can not be dropped, but not skyrocketing As a direct result of the crisis, the collapse of the boundary should be 20%.

As Professor Xu said: "the state-owned commercial banks hidden inside a huge non-performing loans. If a large number of non-performing loans, is likely to become overwhelmed the camel's last straw."

If the former is a lot of the bad loans of the cost of reform, then later the loans in recent years in particular, the housing loans banks make their own decisions management is formed.

According to analysis of the real estate industry, resulting in the current round of skyrocketing housing prices push hand there are three main responsibility levels. From high in the end are: First, banks and the Government (especially local governments); Second, developers and speculators investment; three, the media and real estate stakeholders. If there are no banks relaxed mortgage policies and "the increase, according to" add fuel to the flames of the measures, housing prices can not rise to today's situation, because few people in China will buy a house payment. September last year, mortgage banking policies strictly after the real estate market have a tremendous immediate reaction is proof. Therefore, the "overwhelming camels the last straw" is also the camel (banks) the Zizhao. If the developers of kidnapping a bank, then the bank is in the Government's connivance, kidnapping of the Chinese economy. In addition, the banks, from the past to the present, it is estimated that developers did not dare to Turret neck which allow loans. The bank now if the management level if things continue this way, even if the property does not bring the financial crisis, it is estimated that also other aspects of the problem.

Prices plummeted, that is, Professor Xu said more than 20 percent, will really lead to financial crisis? » I do not, because this round of the skyrocketing prices is the rapid formation of short-term, prices peak of the turnover is not big. Shenzhen 2007 January-September period of skyrocketing prices than the same period last year on turnover of a large proportion of shrinkage. So, even if some default, the banks do not affect large. But if overall prices fell below 30 percent or more, the risk of financial crisis is increasing. Rates should be reasonable adjustments in the 20-30%.

So not a direct result of skyrocketing prices crisis » I think the contrary, at this stage, certainly greater than the risk of skyrocketing plummeted. Professor Xu is not as clear about China's national conditions and housing markets now and in the future longer period of time clients who » Professor Xu set up house prices skyrocketing on the basis of the commercial housing market is only 12% of the service in high-income groups, the majority of ordinary people from the protection of areas of housing solution. This is simply not in keeping with China's national conditions, present and the future of a longer period of time, most of the residents of China's housing problem must be resolved primarily by commercial housing market, the protection is only a small amount of support. Here quoted "Shenzhen City housing construction plan" (2008-2012) (draft) related: "planning period, is necessary to further improve market-oriented, multi-channel, multi-layered housing supply system of classification…… planning period, All types of building 597,000 housing units, construction area of 47.03 million square meters…… construction of 450,000 housing units, construction area of 39.63 million square meters…… planning period, the building of protection of 147,000 housing units, the building area of 7.4 million square meters… … Protection of the housing supply Taoshuo Taoshuo achieve annual housing supply over 20 percent of the total. "From Shenzhen to see the next five years, the housing supply in the market of commercial housing supply account for nearly 80 percent to protect the supply of housing accounted for only about 20% . Shenzhen and other cities similar. This means that the next longer period, China's housing supply will be based on market supply of housing, security of supply, supplemented by housing. In such a situation, according to Xu said if prices continue to surge, the financial crisis is not there, but the social crisis will soon come.

As Professor Xu said the hot money, such as the income of residents in the remainder will sooner or later, into the real estate market, I do not want to, because if the real estate market has been unprofitable investment, or even a loss, and high threshold, the enormous cost that fool Only to gambling, as banks take, or do Industries sense.